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Education

Ph.D., Economics, Princeton University, 1996
MA, Economics, Princeton University, 1994
BA, Economics and Mathematics, Boston University, 1992
 
Employment

MGM Applied Economic Consulting, San Francisco, CA
2009-Present Owner

Responsibilities:
Independent consultant specializing in applied statistical analysis, econometric modeling, and sample design and analysis in both private and public litigation, as well as other legal matters. Liability and damage calculations using statistical modeling in a variety of areas, including competitive practices litigation (Antitrust and IP), wage and hour matters, insurance/asbestos, Mortgage underwriting, 10b-5 securities litigation, construction, and false claims act matters. Designing and critiquing sample design and extrapolation in a variety of matters, including consumer/customer surveys for litigation, healthcare reimbursement audits, and product defects. Experience in matters before numerous government agencies, including the OIG, DOJ, FTC, FCC, ITC, DOC, and other regulatory proceedings.
 
Freeman, Sullivan & Company (The FSC Group), San Francisco, CA
2008-2009 Senior Consultant

Responsibilities:
Provide support to energy team through statistical modeling of short-interval energy usage data to assess customers' responsiveness to changing prices and incentive programs. Designed statistical models for both liability and damages for litigation team.
 
FTI Consulting, San Francisco, CA
2003-2008 Director, Forensic and Litigation Consulting

Responsibilities:
The computation of economic damages which arise in competitive practices litigation, wage and hour matters, intellectual property valuation, breach of contract, healthcare, and Qui Tam false claims law. Experience in matters before numerous government agencies, including the DOJ, FTC, FCC, ITC, DOC, and other regulatory proceedings.
 
Economists Incorporated, Washington, DC
1996-2003 Vice President

Responsibilities:
Specialized in empirical econometric and statistical analyses of microeconomic problems arising in merger filings and antitrust litigation. Developed statistical models for competitive analysis, damage estimates, cost modeling, and survey analysis.
 
Selected Projects:

Healthcare

  • Statistical analysis of possible overpayments of selected physicians at various hospitals for national healthcare provider in self-disclosure.
  • Statistical analysis of alleged excessive hospice stays for national healthcare provider. 
  • Rebuttal to OIG statistical report and extrapolation methodology in RADV Audit/Medicare claims review (Three cases for two separate providers).
  • Rebuttal to OIG statistical report and extrapolation methodology in Medicare claims review (Numerous matters on behalf of several different providers). 
  • Statistical analysis of differential costs in provision of physician healthcare services as part of clinical effectiveness review. 
  • Statistical analysis of alleged Medicare overpayments for large number of university-based clinical trials. 
  • Rebuttal to US Government sampling and extrapolation analysis of alleged overbilling by several providers of geriatric psychiatric and psychological services, including appeal and testimony before ALJ (Two cases for two separate providers).
  • • Performed statistical sampling and extrapolation analysis of possible overpayments to large US pharmacy chain for COB Medicaid prescriptions.
  • • Provided assistance to outside counsel for a claims reimbursement company in connection with an arbitration concerning the company’s late payment of claims submitted by a hospital chain. Assistance included the assessment of the hospital chain’s consultant’s methodology utilized to statistically quantify the claimed damages.
  • Analysis of data on Medicare and Medicaid payments for Albuterol Sulfate for home oxygen therapy to rebut US government claims of allegedly inflated reimbursements.
  • Rebuttal report in Qui Tam false claims case involving statistical analysis of hospital purchases of allegedly unneeded supplies.
  • Assisted in analysis of econometric work on behalf of defendants in the alleged monopolization of psychiatric hospitals in the Dallas area by NME in Timberlawn v. Tenet Healthcare, et al. 
  • Supplemental Analysis of "Inherent Reasonableness" Survey, prepared for HIMA (with Matthew Mercurio); February 1999. Report on DMERC "Inherent Reasonableness" Survey, prepared for HIMA (with Meg Guerin-Calvert); November 1998. 
  • Summary Report: Interviews of Representative HIMA Members' Views on FASA, prepared for HIMA (with Meg Guerin-Calvert); July 1997.
  • Economic analysis and report on HCFA “Inherent Reasonableness” survey methodology and data, used as the basis for proposed adjustments to the Medicare reimbursements for several durable medical products, including blood glucose strips.
  • Prepared economic analysis of issues related to reimbursement rates, access, and quality issues for the Roche HIV-1 Viral Load test, including implications of HCFA “gap-fill” methodologies and possible national fee cap.

Intellectual Property
  • Work for large multinational bank in defense of shareholder class action lawsuit alleging stock price inflation.
  • Performed lost profit and reasonable royalty analysis in patent infringement matter involving home fitness equipment.
  • Assisted in reasonable royalty analysis in patent infringement matter involving mobile device management (MDM) software (including counterclaim).
  • Assisted in reasonable royalty analysis in patent infringement matter involving smartphone camera functionality.
  • Performed lost profit and reasonable royalty analysis in patent infringement matter involving printer equipment.
  • Performed lost profit and reasonable royalty analysis in patent infringement matter involving golfing equipment.
  • Detailed statistical analysis of music usage data to help determine appropriate licensing fees for public broadcasts.
  • Performed reasonable royalty analysis including econometric model of similar products for a multinational firm in the office software industry in a patent infringement matter.

Sampling and Survey Design
  • Analyzed data from multiple user surveys (both residential and C&I) on outage costs to produce reliable, transparent, and publicly available outage cost information that can be applied in value-based reliability planning.
  • Assisted in the design and analysis of a survey of consumer attitudes and willingness to pay for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) to assist utilities on planning efforts.
  • Designed and analyzed of a survey of consumer attitudes and willingness to pay for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Determined likely penetration rates of PHEVs vis-à-vis traditional hybrid vehicles (HEVs) to assist major US utility in planning for potential increased electricity load as PHEVs enter the market.
  • Investigated claims of unpaid meal and rest breaks at one of the largest fast food chains in the US. Conducted a survey of current employees to assess work habits.
  • Designed a survey of clinical trial data for a university health system for the purpose of auditing Medicare reimbursement amounts.
  • Analysis provided in selecting a statistically valid sample of insurance claims in order to compute reliable estimate of alleged accounting error.
  • Analysis of sample chosen by plaintiff in a revenue dispute case involving accounts receivable discrepancies.
  • Statistical analysis and survey design relating to contracts for major U.S. credit bureau.

Statistical Analysis Damage Modeling
  • Limited dependent (logit/probit) analysis of home loan failures in large mortgage-backed securitizations on behalf of large bank underwriters to differentiate the effects of alleged fraudulent underwriting from other causes of loan failure (4 separate class-action cases for 4 banks).
  • Analysis of Asbestos claims data. Developed an allocation model for all insurers to predict coverage amounts based on legal rulings.
  • Developed a probability model to rebut damage claims of Plaintiffs’ expert in work for large manufacturer of plumbing supplies.
  • Analysis of data on hard drive failures. Statistical analysis of data on laptop hard drive failures on behalf of plaintiff in defective product litigation.
  • Statistical analysis of data on pipe leaks. Survival analysis of leaks in polybutylene cold water service pipes in several jurisdictions.

Anticompetitive Behavior
  • Designed and managed statistical analyses to investigate the alleged impact of price-fixing among cement producers. In addition to econometric analysis of duration and scope of the alleged conspiracy, assisted in the criminal investigation by demonstrating the tradeoff between the price effect of the affected conspiracy and the total “affected commerce”, upon which criminal sentencing is based. The methodology in the case was ultimately described in an article presented at the Western Economic Association International Annual Conference in Vancouver, B.C. on July 1, 2009.
  • Assisted two foreign manufacturers of insecticides used in aerial forest spraying regarding allegations of price-fixing via allocation of the Canadian market.  Assisted in both liability and damages via econometric analyses of input costs and output prices, taking account of both capacity constraints and the already high concentration levels in the market.
  • Declarations and other economic analysis relating to alleged monopolization and attempted monopolization of the west coast swimming pool chemicals distribution market in Pool Water Products, et al. v. Olin Corporation, et al.
  • Assisted with competitive analysis for defendants of foreclosure claim in plastic golf cleats industry in Green Keepers, Inc. v. Softspikes, Inc. and MacNeill Engineering Worldwide, Inc.
  • Work on Niacin and Choline Chloride as part of In Re: Vitamins litigation and Methionine in related litigation. Worked on numerous aspects of these three cases, including assistance in the drafting of affirmative and rebuttal report incorporating econometric analysis of damages due to alleged price fixing conspiracy. Employed statistical techniques to filter and summarize the individual transactions data for millions of individual purchases, reducing the scope of the statistical analysis to a manageable level.
  • Detailed analyses of 1992 and 1996 Surveys of Consumer Finances data to investigate restraint of trade claims.

Mergers/Acquisitions
  • Assisted in economic analysis in support of merger of two Long Island hospitals, Long Island Jewish and Northshore Manhasset.
  • Submitted a paper to the FCC on behalf of the Newspaper Association of America (NAA) on structural change in media markets since 1975 and the potential benefits of joint ownership to assist the Commission in reviewing its Newspaper-Broadcast Cross-Ownership rule.
  • Solution 6/CMS proposed acquisition of Elite Information Group (time and billing software systems): Hart-Scott-Rodino review by the Federal Trade Commission.
  • Statistical analysis of potential effects of FCC’s proposed digital “must-carry” rules, In the Matter of Carriage of Transmissions of Digital Television Broadcast Stations, Amendments to Part 76 of the Commission’s Rules, CS Docket No. 98-120.
  • Econometric analyses of market definition in Radio, Television, and Newspaper advertising markets.
  • Assisted in clearance of merger of two large telecommunications equipment manufacturers (DSC and Alcatel) - overlap in digital cross connects (DCSs).
  • Acquisition of Union Carbide by Dow Chemical: Hart-Scott-Rodino review by Federal Trade Commission.
  • Acquisition of Infinity Broadcasting Corporation by Westinghouse Electric Corporation. Hart-Scott-Rodino review by the Department of Justice.
  • USA Waste acquisition of United Waste.
  • Qwest-US West merger.

Finance
  • Provided economic and econometric analysis of Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) database of individual transactions for the purpose of defining and investigating certain structural relationships in the municipal securities market, as well as potential oversight or rulemaking.
  • Assisted in preparation of report on ATM fees on behalf of American Bankers Association.
  • Conducted event study and damages analysis in complex 10-b-5 securities class action case involving medical products manufacturer accused of earnings distortion (5 separate cases).

Energy Markets
  • Assisted in the development of enrollment forecasts and ex-post load reduction predictions in order to generate ex-ante load reduction forecasts for PG&E’s SmartRate program.
  • Assisted in the development of estimates of load impacts and forecasts of demand response programs for Ontario Power Authority (OPA).
  • Assisted in the development of ex post estimates of load impacts and ex ante forecasts of demand response programs for Ontario Power Authority (OPA).Designed a survey of clinical trial data for a university health system for the purpose of auditing Medicare reimbursement amounts.

Employment and Wage & Hour Matters
  • Assisted in statistical analysis related to allegations of racial discrimination by Booz-Allen & Hamilton's Worldwide Technology Business ("WTB").
  • Analyzed class certification issues as they related to a wage-hour dispute of an airline company.
  • Work for several large US retail firms in defense of class action wage and hour cases.
  • Analysis of employee work history data to rebut class certification and damage estimates in employment classification matter.
  • Analysis of employee work history data for nationwide fast food chain to rebut class certification and damage estimates in employment classification and rest break matter.
  • Investigated claims of unpaid benefits and overtime at large perfume consortium. Analyzed data on seasonal department store workers to assess viability of claims for unpaid pension and medical benefits.

International Trade
  • Helped prepare testimony on behalf of respondent Hyundai in Sunset Review No. 713-TA-556: Dynamic Random Access Memory Semiconductors from Korea, United States International Trade Commission, September 2000.
  • Prepared testimony on behalf of Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports in Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada, International Trade Administration and International Trade Commission, 2001-2002 (No. 701-TA-414).

Telecommunications
  • Submitted a report on behalf of the C-SPAN networks analyzing the potential effect of the FCC’s proposed Digital Must Carry (DMC) rules on the decision of individual cable operators whether or not to carry the C-SPAN networks. 
  • Submitted report to the FCC entitled “An Economic Analysis of the SB.C.-Ameritech Merger” (joint with Gregory Rosston) accompanying joint comments of Attorneys General of Michigan, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Report cited several areas of potential competitive concerns with the merger, also proposed conditions for FCC approval of the merger.
  • Merger of two large telecommunications equipment manufacturers (DSC and Alcatel) - overlap in digital cross connects (DCSs).
  • Analysis of “FCC Staff Model of the Telecommunications Industry” for possible use in local competition provisions of the Telecommunications Act of 1996.
  • Developed an econometric model of digital switching costs for use in cost proxy models, joint with Steven E. Siwek. Used to support LD companies in 251 proceedings.
  • Design of statistically valid sampling procedure for study of work times of various local telephony activities. Provided affidavit and testimonial support of these procedures before the Maryland PUC.

Testimony, Depositions, Affidavits, Declarations
  • Testimony in arbitration Health Care Partners Nevada, LLC, (Claimant) v. Gary W. Polsky et al and Solari Hospice Care.
  • Trial testimony and Deposition regarding damages on behalf of Plaintiff Quoc Viet Foods in trademark infringement matter relating to the misuse of the "Cot" trademark by Defendant VV foods, August 6, 2014 (deposition) and March 10, 2016 (trial).
  • Deposition in False Claims Act - Qui Tam matter for Defendant Halifax Health System related to allegedly improper short stays, December 18, 2013.
  • Deposition regarding copyright matter on behalf of Greenlight Financial Services over trademark infringement by owner of greenlight.com website, March 6, 2013.
  • Trial testimony regarding copyright matter on behalf of Greenlight Financial Services over trademark infringement by owner of greenlight.com website, April 13, 2013.
  • Deposition in litigated matter involving the California Franchise Tax Board regarding alleged violation of California "Taxpayer Bill of Rights" by private distributor, June 7, 2012.
  • Deposition regarding damages on behalf of Plaintiff Kim Loan restaurant in trademark infringement matter relating to the misuse of the "Kim Loan" trademark, May 22, 2012.
  • Trial testimony regarding damages (lost wages calculations) in unlawful termination matter in California, April 18, 2012.
  • Testified in arbitration hearing on behalf of purchaser of pharmacy which was later sued by CMS over alleged Medicare overbilling, October, 2011.
  • Testified in preliminary hearing regarding statistical sampling issues in the matter of UNITED STATES of America, ex rel. Patrick J. LOUGHREN, Plaintiff, v. UNUMPROVIDENT CORP., et al., Defendants, Civil Action No. 03-11699-PBS, December, 2008.
  • Deposition in construction defect case for matter involving large home builder over alleged deficiencies in a subdivision of 31 homes in Fresno, CA, March 2010.
  • Deposition on behalf of P2P file-sharing network against allegations of copyright violations from RIAA, September, 2008.
  • Deposition in False Claims Act - Qui Tam matter for large U.S. hospital management company based on submitted Rule 26 Report, July 10, 2006.
  • Testified before the International Trade Commission on behalf of the Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports in Certain Softwood Lumber Products From Canada (No. 701-TA-414), April, 2002.
  • Testified before the U.S. International Trade Commission on behalf of respondent steel importers from Korea, Brazil, Japan, UK, Italy, and other European countries in Section 201 (“safeguard”) action (No. 201-TA-073), November 8, 2001.
  • Prepared testimony on behalf of respondent Hyundai in Sunset Review (No. 713-TA-556): Dynamic Random Access Memory Semiconductors from Korea, United States International Trade Commission, September 2000.
  • Testified before the Public Service Commission of Maryland, In the matter of the investigation of non-recurring charges for telecommunications interconnection services, Case No. 8786 (Testimony Jan. 25, 1999).




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